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NJ Homebuilding Slows


 

 

12/1/14

by Patrick J. O'Keefe, Director of Economic Research

 

View accompanying chartbook.

New Jersey’s homebuilders obtained 1,588 building permits (i.e., authorizations to undertake construction) in October, the fewest since February. 

Month-on-month: Total authorizations fell 37.7% as multifamily approvals, which are notoriously volatile, recorded the largest one-month percentage decline (-58.9%) since February 2013. 

Single family approvals declined more modestly (-8.8%), partially reversing September’s sharp rise. [Charts 1 and 7]

Year-to-Date: Over the course of 2014’s first ten months, residential authorizations in New Jersey exceed every year since 2006. 

Year-to-date approvals totaled 23,738 units, 18.4% more than 2013’s comparable period. 

Despite October’s deceleration of multifamily approvals, attached dwellings still accounted for four-fifths (81.8%) of year-to-date increase. [Charts 3 and 4]

Multifamily authorizations have accounted for 60.7% of this year’s approvals. But the share has declined steadily since July’s 63.0%, which was highest monthly proportion in records dating from 1988. 

Single-family approvals during the year’s first ten months totaled 9,323 units, 7.7% more than the comparable period in 2013. 

Adjusted data: Permit data (especially multifamily authorizations) tend to be volatile and, like many economic indicators, vary seasonally. 
Adjusting for those factors – by using a three-month moving average of seasonally adjusted data – approvals were down in the most recent 3-month period, largely on slippage in multifamily permits since July. [Chart 3]

Single-family approvals, adjusted for seasonal fluctuations, declined from September’s one-month spike (the largest one-month gain since early 2002); but the reversal was incomplete and the three-month single family average remained above 900 for a second consecutive month. [Charts 9 and 10]


The statements, opinions, and conclusions contained herein are based solely upon the author’s own studies, research, and personal experience. Neither CohnReznick nor the author make any representation or warranty as to the accuracy or completeness of this information. CohnReznick and the author expressly disclaim any liability for any loss or damage which may be incurred, of any kind whatsoever, as a result of or arising from the use of any of the information contained herein or reliance on the accuracy or completeness of it.

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