Country / Language

NJ Unemployment Claims Retreat After Seasonal Surge


7/30/15

by Patrick J. O'Keefe, Director of Economic Research

The most recent U.S. Department of Labor unemployment insurance (UI) data for New Jersey shows that through the week ended July 25:
 
  1. Applications for benefits declined for the third consecutive week;
  2. Filings were down substantially from June’s spike, when schools shifted to summer staffing levels;
  3. Adjusted for seasonality, applications fell 17.3% in the most recent week;
  4. The number of beneficiaries is sharply higher due to school-related furloughs; and,
  5. New Jersey’s insured unemployment rate, at 3.0%, was the highest among all states.
     
 
Initial Claims (Charts 1 through 3), a proxy for layoffs, fell by about one-third (33.1%) in the most recent week.
 
Total applications were down 57.4% from the school-related seasonal peak that occurred in the last week of June. And filings were 9.2% below last year’s comparable week (when the seasonal surge was compounded by cutbacks in the State’s gaming and transportation sectors).
 
The seasonally adjusted four-week moving average of applications (Chart 3) – which adjusts for regularly recurring changes (e.g., education-related summer furloughs) and smoothes weekly fluctuations – declined by a more modest 3.5% for the period ending July 18.
 
New claims in mid-July were 25.0% less than the average during the five years (2003-2007) prior to the recession. Even after adjustment for seasonality, they were 16.0% less than during the pre-recession period.
 
Continuing Claims (Charts 4 through 6), that is individuals receiving weekly benefits, rose marginally (up 1.9%) in the week ended July 11. The tally had increased an average of 11.6% per week in the two previous weeks.
 
When adjusted for seasonal factors, however, ongoing claims slipped marginally (down 1.0%) in the most recent week after having risen an average of 3.5% in the prior two weeks.
 
The total number of beneficiaries in New Jersey in mid-July was 12.5% less than in 2014’s comparable week.
 
The State’s insured unemployment rate (IUR) rose to 3.0% in the week ended July 11, the highest since early April. New Jersey’s IUR was the highest in the nation.
 
In summary, the State’s unemployment claims count has risen due to seasonal factors. When adjusted for those recurring conditions, the underlying trend is generally positive.
 

The statements, opinions, and conclusions contained herein are based solely upon the author’s own studies, research, and personal experience. Neither CohnReznick nor the author make any representation or warranty as to the accuracy or completeness of this information. CohnReznick and the author expressly disclaim any liability for any loss or damage which may be incurred, of any kind whatsoever, as a result of or arising from the use of any of the information contained herein or reliance on the accuracy or completeness of it.

Search Our People

Search Our People

Look ahead. Gain insight. Imagine more. Is your business ready to break through?

View our new TV commercial..

Industry Outlooks

Industry Outlooks

Gain insight into what is ahead for the Commercial Real Estate, Technology and Middle Market Private Equity industries.

READ MORE

Learn about our upcoming events.

READ MORE

Working With Us

Working With Us

What makes CohnReznick different from others in our profession? And what should our clients come to expect when working with us? The answer is The CohnReznick Advantage. Contact us to learn how we can out the CohnReznick Advantage to work for your business.


People

The value of an organization is determined by the skills and qualities of its leaders. With more than 280 partners serving clients nationwide, CohnReznick is renowned for the diverse experiences, knowledge and backgrounds of its leadership.

Learn More

Services

We align our services in three segments: Accounting and Assurance, Tax, and Advisory. This approach allows us to provide holistic solutions to complex business problems and to seize upon opportunities requiring an integrated approach.

Learn More

Industries

Accounting and tax issues different significantly based on an organization's industry. We provide clients with expertise in nearly two dozen industries – we know the opportunities, the obstacles, the competitive landscape.

Learn more

Insights

CohnReznick professionals are thought leaders in their industries. Clients benefit from relevant and timely economic, legislative and industry insights that can keep them a step ahead of competition.

Learn More

Global Reach

Our involvement in the Nexia International network of firms enables us assist our clients wherever they do business-providing local expertise and connections wherever they needed. Nexia is comprised of 20,000 professionals operating in over 100 countries.

Learn More